It is either the best time to be investing in Internet companies or the worst. That's how I was left feeling after reading two columns this afternoon -- both of which lay out interesting (and persuasive) arguments on whether people can make real money in the Internet business these days.
James Altucher, a managing partner at Formula Capital, got things rolling with a column in The Wall Street Journal titled "The Internet Is Dead (As An Investment)." That prompted noted blogger Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures to counter that "The Internet Is Alive And Well (As An Investment.)"
So what is it?
I'll let readers dissect the two arguments in a moment, but the debate certainly comes at an interesting time when many venture capitalists, politicians and entrepreneurs are trying to figure out where the economy is headed.
I've certainly interviewed folks on both sides of the aisle.
There are those who believe the new crop of consumer-oriented Web sites are a complete joke and will never turn a profit. (Insert Twitter slam here).
Just last week, I heard from a venture capitalist who said consumer-oriented Internet business might be sexy, but they don't now and never will make money for investors.
This is the Altucher camp.
And then there those who believe there's a ton of money to be made when you aggregate large online audiences around a specific niche. (For example, many VCs in this town have salivated over investing in Seattle online photo editing service Picnik, a fast growing company that has refused to take on venture money and is now cash flow positive.)
This is the Wilson camp.
So, what did these two gentleman actually say?
Here's an excerpt from Altucher's piece:
"The days of infinite margins, 1,000% productivity gains, and growth of market throughout the universe are long over. Internet companies now should be treated, at best, like utility companies that get bought at about 10 times earnings and sold at 13 times earnings. Even then, I'm not sure I would give the Internet sector the same respect as the monopoly-protected utility sector.
Don't just ask me. Ask the best. Nobody can figure out a business model."
The piece then goes on to list how News Corp., Time Warner and even tech titans like Google, Microsoft and Cisco haven't really been able to figure out how to make money off the Internet.
That prompted Wilson's follow-up:
"We ... think the Internet is one of those transformative technologies that changes everything. We see it like the industrial revolution or the invention of the printing press. It is a huge game changer. The Internet has been a commercial technology for about fifteen years now. And we are beginning to see the impact of it on everything around us. The industrial revolution and the Renaissance before it lasted a century or more. It takes a long time for such fundamental changes to work their way through the system and produce a new "normal".
Periods of great change produce fantastic investment opportunities and also destroy stable predictable businesses. Investors have the choice to take a chance on the new opportunities, stick with the stable predictable businesses, or sit on the sidelines. I prefer to do the former."
I'd be interested in hearing what you think: Is Internet dead or alive when it comes to business opportunities?
John Cook i co-founder of TechFlash. Follow him on Twitter @johnhcook.
[Flickr photo via Sabrina Campagna]
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